ATHENS — Georgia has taken the drama out of the College Football Playoff’s top spot for now, but there’s plenty of controversy about the remaining three positions.
Most consider the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game on Nov. 26 a lock for one of the top two spots — provided it wins a Big Ten Championship Game it will be heavily favored in — but many wonder if the Wolverines or Buckeyes might still be able to slip in with one loss.
There are several scenarios, of course, including a few that would enable the SEC or the Big Ten — or maybe both — to get two teams into the four-team CFP field that will be revealed on Dec. 4.
TCU and USC are teams that appear in control of their own destiny, as well, while Tennessee likely only needs either the Horned Frogs or the Trojans to lose one game.
Here’s a look at when and where the remaining CFP contenders are playing on Saturday:
GAMES TO WATCH
No. 4 TCU at Baylor (Noon, Fox)
The Horned Frogs are three wins away from a first-ever CFP appearance, so why is TCU only a 3-point favorite over a Bears program it has beaten 6 of the past 7 years that is currently 6-4 and coming off a 31-3 loss to Kansas State? There’s some intrigue building in Waco, Texas.
No. 7 USC at UCLA (8 p.m. Fox)
It’s Lincoln Riley vs. Chip Kelly. The Trojans are trying to become the first Pac-12 team to make the CFP since Washington in 2016, but they have a mountain to climb starting with a game against rival UCLA in a sold-out Rose Bowl.
Beauty contests
No. 5 Tennessee at South Carolina (7 p.m. ESPN)
The Vols punched a TD into the end zone in the final minute of a 66-24 blowout win over Missouri, just to give you an idea of Josh Heupel’s mindset. UT is more than a three-touchdown favorite to beat the Gamecocks in Columbia in a series they lead 9-8 dating back to 2005 when Steve Spurrier led South Carolina to its first-ever win in Knoxville.
No. 9 Clemson vs. Miami, Fla. (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Tigers need to win out, and do so impressively, to give themselves a chance of making the four-team CFP field. Clemson has won the past three meetings with Miami decisively — (42-17, 38-3 and 58-0). Don’t count Dabo Swinney out yet, as Clemson could get in with losses by TCU, USC and Michigan.
No. 2 Ohio State at Maryland (3:30 p.m. ABC)
The Buckeyes have won all 7 of their meeting with the Terrapins and are a 27.5-point in College Park. Ohio State will be inclined to keep adding points to the scoreboard as it is just 8 points behind Tennessee in the race to lead the nation in scoring. Could a one-loss Buckeyes team ace out a one-loss Vols’ team as top at-large?
Just win
No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The Bulldogs have won 12 straight against the Wildcats and are more than a three-touchdown favorite to make it 13 in a row. Georgia will be favored by double digits at home against Georgia Tech next Saturday and in the SEC Championship Game against LSU, too.
No. 3 Michigan vs. Illinois (Noon, ABC)
It’s Senior Day in the Big House, and the Wolverines will be looking for their sixth straight win in this lopsided series. Michigan’s non-conference schedule is so bad, there’s little chance Michigan makes it as a one-loss at-large.
No. 6 LSU vs. UAB (9 p.m. ESPN2)
It’s Senior Tribute day for the SEC West Division Bayou Bengals, and it’s under the lights against UAB, a team that somehow beat Nick Saban in his first season coaching LSU in 2000. LSU can become the first 2-loss team to make the CFP, but it will need some help. Margin of victory isn’t a factor, however.
Crystal Ball
(Mike Griffith prediction on 11-18-22)
Forecasting the field:
(CFP field will be released on 12-4-22)
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Tennessee
4. Clemson
How the field gets settled:
1. Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee and Clemson win out
2. USC and TCU suffer a loss
3. ACC Conference Champion Game winner Clemson gets selected over one-loss Michigan and one-loss TCU.
