ATHENS — The College Football Playoff rankings have everyone talking, just as they were intended to do.
But some of those people talking are in the SEC, and the CFP results might not have the effect some desired — adding a ninth conference game to the league slate in 2026.
Why would the SEC schools want to set themselves up for even more arduous schedules when the CFP committee undervalues their schedule strengths?
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This, even after new CFP executive director Rich Clark made it a point on an introductory call two weeks ago to stress the importance strength of schedule would play in the rankings.
“That is a very important metric, it’s not the only metric, (but) it’s one that cross-cuts across conferences and team schedules,” Clark said, “and it gives us a look so we can compare teams more accurately based on their strength of schedule. It helps us to look at teams in a more fair manner.
“Record matters,” Clark said, “but we’re not trying to pick the most deserving teams, we’re trying to pick the best teams.”
Closed-door conversations
The CFP rankings imbalance, with Big Ten teams crowding the top, are to the extent the question of whether or not to raise the SEC league schedule from eight games to nine games in 2026 has once again become a hot-button topic.
“100 percent, those conversations … are taking place as we speak relative to what the schedule should look like,” LSU coach Brian Kelly said when asked by DawgNation about the potential future scheduling ramifications of the current CFP rankings.
“In fairness to the committee, there’s still a lot of football to be played, and how this thing really shakes out in its totality relative to the strength of schedule throughout the entire year, I don’t think we can determine that,” Kelly said.
“Having said that the conversations about whether 8 or 9 is the appropriate number based upon how you will finish the season by the eyes of the committee, they are certainly having those conversations.”
It’s understandable when the only four Big Ten teams ranked in the CFP Top 25 are all ranked within the Top 5, while eight of the nine SEC teams in those same rankings are outside the Top 5.
The average schedule strength of the four Big Ten teams in the Top 25, per Sagarin computer rankings is 53.2 -- the average schedule strength of the nine SEC teams in the Top 25 is 26.7.
Skewing perception
One issue is the first two sets of CFP rankings will inherently add a bias to the schedule strength of the Big Ten, which has four of the top six teams.
So, when No. 5 Indiana plays at No. 2 Ohio State on Nov. 23, the loser will have a “Top 5 loss” on their resume — not too bad.
But when No. 6 Tennessee plays No. 11 Georgia, should UGA win, the Vols would have a loss to a team ranked outside the top 10 — not as impressive as a “Top 5″ loss, and more costly to their resume.
This, even though Georgia’s No. 11 rank is questionable, on account of the Bulldogs having played the No. 1-ranked schedule in the nation, with their losses coming to Top 10 teams Ole Miss and Alabama.
The eye test?
DawgNation asked CFP Chairman — and Michigan athletic director — Warde Manuel if projected head-to-head meetings were taken into consideration when ranking the teams.
The “eye test” continues to be part of the CFP protocol, but it’s fair to wonder how it’s being applied.
For example, does the committee consider whether No. 5-ranked Indiana — which has not beaten a team with better than a 5-4 record (Nebraska) — would beat all of the teams ranked behind it?
“No,” Manuel replied, after an extended pause on the Tuesday night teleconference with select media. “If you look at this season and who some teams have lost to, I don’t think anybody on this call would say, would have predicted, some of these teams would be losing to the teams that they lost to.”
Perhaps not, but the SEC has a history that’s hard to ignore, when one considers four of the past five national champions and 10 of the 20 CFP championship game participants have come from a group of 14 SEC teams — none of which are represented in the current top six teams in the rankings.
SEC resume
Are we to believe that, suddenly, a group of 14 SEC teams that has produced more NFL draft picks than any other conference in the country has fallen off a cliff?
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer, whose resume includes stops at then-Big 12 member Oklahoma and ACC-member Virginia Tech, shared his opinion.
“I know the league that we play in, I know the level of talent you see every single Saturday in this league, all you have to do is look at the NFL draft every April, and there’s a reason this conference has led the nation in draft picks I think the last 19 years,” Beamer said.
“There’s no weeks off in this league; it’s not one of those where there’s four great teams at the top four the conference and everybody else is just average,” he said. “There’s no weeks off in this conference.
I’ve been in other conferences, there’s nothing like the SEC, I’ll leave it at that.”
TV Ratings vs. CFP Rankings
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, speaking on the SEC Network’s Paul Finebaum Show on Thursday night, said the league is deeper than ever.
“Our depth is beyond anything that I’ve experienced, the strength of our teams,” Sankey said. “The number of teams we’ve had ranked throughout the year, and I think that’s a sign of respect.
“I believe that part of that loss column is more about the depth of talent and the strength of competition than necessarily about the team that bears that loss, because some of these games have been incredibly close.”
Sankey noted how the tight race in the SEC has kept many fanbases engaged, but the league’s scheduling model has fostered some of that balance.
Georgia’s slate, which has included road trips to Top 10 teams Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss, is certainly not on par with others.
Hence, there’s only one SEC team in the top six of the current CFP rankings — Texas — a team with an appreciably easier schedule that Georgia actually beat 30-15.
Kirby weighs in
The CFP’s apparent decision to prioritize number of losses, without regard to schedule strength, will impact how SEC teams vote when it comes time to consider expanded from eight to nine conference games.
Top teams in contention for the 12-team college football playoff will be as wary of another SEC dogfight as the bottom half teams wanting to opt for an easier non-conference game so they might maintain bowl eligibility.
“You’ve got to figure it’s going to come up,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said, asked if the CFP rankings will influence the SEC’s decision on future scheduling. “I think Greg Sankey does a great job with our leadership, and he’ll be thinking long and hard about the outcome.
“I don’t know that it’s just about the nine games, it’s about everything, we certainly feel like the strength of our conference is really strong, there’s going to be more parity, we’ve seen that this year, and what does that equal to in terms of the eyes of the committee?” Smart said.
“They are the judge and the jury in terms of college football, and they make the decisions sometimes based on things we may not agree with,” Smart said.
“But they are the ones making the decision, so there will be some decision-making that has to be made based on how this thing turns out.”
Wear and tear
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is new to the SEC, coming over from his most recent stop in the Pac-12, and he’s noted the difference.
DeBoer, whose Alabama team has a case for being ranked higher with four wins over Top 25 teams — no one else has more than two — brought up another consideration for SEC schedule expansion.
“Another thing that needs to be takin into account is what we’re asking of these guys, week-in and week-out, with a longer postseason, and possibly rosters decreased, smaller,” DeBoer said.
“The strain on their bodies is certainly apparent, not just for us — it’s going to be a thing when you get tested and you have to play games down to the wire like much of the league has to.”
It’s fair to suggest that such games lead to more beat-up top SEC teams by the end of the year than the version of other league’s best teams, which do not face the same number of challenges.
As Smart and others have noted -- and the current CFP rankings suggest, there is more parity an depth n the SEC than in any other conference.
Unknown future
Smart correctly stated when a two-loss Georgia was left out of the 2018 four-team playoff in favor of a one-loss Oklahoma that every year, the CFP committee would select different data points and metrics that mattered most in their decisions.
At some point, this current 13-member CFP committee may or may not choose to acknowledge the SEC’s parity and depth in its rankings.
Manuel, pressed by DawgNation on the national call about the application of schedule strength, could only spin his wheels.
“Yeah (schedule strength) does (matter), but we also factor in wins and losses in terms of who you play and how you play in those particular games,” he said. “A team with a weaker schedule, how they perform as well as abasing the opponents that they play.
“So it’s an evaluation that takes into consideration strength of schedule, but it also evaluates how you play.”
Here’s a look at how computer whiz Jeff Sagarin, whose strength of schedule rankings were one part of the BCS, has the CFP Top 25 teams schedule strengths rated:
(CFP rank, team, SOS in parenthesis, SEC teams in boldface type)
1. Oregon (46)
2. Ohio State (58)
3. Texas (47)
4. Penn State (33)
5. Indiana (76)
6. Tennessee (54)
7. BYU (34)
8. Notre Dame (66)
9. Alabama (4)
10. Ole Miss (39)
11. Georgia (1)
12. Miami, Fla. (56)
13. Boise State (83)
14. SMU (62)
15. Texas A&M (18)
16. Army (138)
17. Clemson (53)
18. Colorado (23)
19. Washington St. (86)
20. Kansas St. (20)
21. LSU (5)
22. Louisville (17)
23. South Carolina (6)
24 Missouri (67)
25 Tulane (91)