ATHENS — The Georgia Bulldogs have been regular participants in the SEC championship game, making it in six of Kirby Smart’s previous eight years as head coach.
A loss to Florida ruled that out for Georgia in 2020, which was also the last time Georgia lost multiple games in a season prior to this year.
Georgia sits at 8-2 on the season and completed SEC play with a 6-2 SEC record. The Bulldogs finish the season with non-conference games against UMass and Georgia Tech.
Smart was asked at Monday’s press conference if he was keeping his eye on the rest of the SEC and what would need to happen for Georgia to make it back to the SEC championship game.
“The focus is on UMass, I mean it really is,” Smart said. “So why would I put energy or time into trying to figure out what the best pathway is, including the SEC Championship, when I’m worried about UMass? I just don’t think it’s a quality conversation.”
Georgia does not control its own destiny in terms of getting to Atlanta. The Bulldogs will need help if they are to make it this year.
If the projected favorites win out, Texas would face Alabama in the SEC championship game.
Plenty of teams are still alive, as six teams could all finish with 6-2 SEC records.
And in that specific scenario, Georgia would actually go to the SEC championship game.
Below are some of the possibilities where Georgia could find itself playing in Atlanta, where a win would lock up a College Football Playoff berth and a first-round bye. The winner of the SEC championship game will play in the Sugar Bowl, scheduled for New Year’s Day in New Orleans.
A loss in the game though opens up some uncertainty, given we don’t know how the College Football Playoff committee will view conference championship defeats.
Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn, Ole Miss and Tennessee win out
Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee all currently have two conference losses, like Georgia. Based on conference opponents’ winning percentage, Alabama is likely to come out on top in any tiebreaking scenario. The Crimson Tide did not play Mississippi State and Kentucky, who are currently a combined 1-12. So while Georgia played most of the top teams in the league, it’s the lack of games against the middle class of SEC teams that hurts it in any multi-team tiebreaker involving Alabama. The Bulldogs also, of course, lost head-to-head to Alabama.
So the cleanest way for Georgia to get to Atlanta would be another Alabama loss, giving the Crimson Tide three on the season. Alabama travels to Oklahoma this weekend before hosting Auburn. The Crimson Tide will be favored in both games, but Alabama was favored in eventual losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee.
It is worth noting that any multi-team tiebreakers involving Ole Miss, Tennessee and either Texas or Texas A&M — the other SEC teams that could finish with two conference losses — Georgia would hold an edge thanks to the combined winning percentage of its conference opponents.
In the event that Alabama picks up a third SEC loss, Georgia would play the winner of the Texas-Texas A&M game.
Texas and Texas A&M both finish with 2 conference losses
Should Texas and Texas A&M both win this weekend, it sets up a monster of a game in College Station, Texas, on Nov. 30. The winner of that game would go on to Atlanta, while the loser would wait to learn the fate of their season from the College Football Playoff committee. There is no scenario where Texas and Texas A&M can play each other in back-to-back weeks.
But what if one of those teams were to get tripped up this weekend and then play spoiler the next? Say Auburn beats Texas A&M and the Aggies turn around and beat Texas at home. That would knock both teams out of Atlanta. The same would be true if Texas were to improbably lose at home to Kentucky and then beat Texas A&M on the road the following week.
If Texas and Texas A&M both finish with two losses — and favorites Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss win out — it would set up a scenario for Georgia and Alabama to meet again in the SEC championship game. Even if Ole Miss and/or Tennessee pick up additional losses, Georgia-Alabama would be the SEC championship game matchup.
How we get a fresh SEC championship game for Georgia football
And what if all the home teams win in the last two weeks of SEC play? While incredibly unlikely, Smart has said time and time again that winning on the road in the SEC is incredibly difficult.
All of the teams that could finish with two conference losses all have to go on the road at least one more time this season. That would mean, in this improbable scenario, that Georgia, Texas A&M and Texas all finish with two SEC losses. Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss would each pick up a third conference loss.
In that scenario, Georgia and Texas A&M would play in the SEC championship game, thanks to the Aggies’ home win over Texas. Of the teams that can finish with two conference losses, Texas A&M is the only team that Georgia has not already played this season. Georgia and Texas A&M have only met once since the Aggies joined the SEC, with the Bulldogs winning 19-13 in Athens.
