Georgia clinched its fourth-straight conference championship game appearance after a wild Saturday of upsets in the SEC.
The Bulldogs, projected by ESPN to rank No. 7 in the next CFP rankings when they are released on Tuesday night, will play the winner of next Saturday’s Texas at Texas A&M Game in the SEC Championship Game at 4 p.m. on Dec. 7 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The winner of the SEC Championship Game will play at 8:45 p.m. on Jan. 1 in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans against a first-round CFP playoff game winner and bypass the first-round CFP games (Dec. 20-21).
The CFP stipulations state the winners of the four Power 4 conference championship games — the Big Ten, the SEC, the ACC and the Big 12, along with the highest ranked conference championship game winner from the Group of Five (currently Boise State of the Mountain West) — are guaranteed spots in the 12-team college football playoff field.
The top four CFP ranked teams out of those conference championship game winners will receive first-round byes and not play until Dec. 31/Jan. 1.
The exciting news for Bulldogs’ fans that they will see their team in the SEC Championship Game comes with an important caveat: If Georgia loses the SEC title game, there’s a chance it will be left out of the 12-team playoff field.
But first, what happened to set the wheels in motion for this rapid change of postseason outlooks.
Georgia started the day high enough in the CFP rankings (No. 10) needing only to beat UMass and Georgia Tech to clinch a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff without even playing in the SEC Championship Game.
But then the dangers of SEC road games kicked in, and Ole Miss was upset at Florida (24-17), and Alabama was upset at Oklahoma (24-3) and Texas A&M was upset at Auburn (43-41, 4 OT).
And suddenly, Georgia and Tennessee were the last two 2-loss teams standing in the SEC with Texas still atop the SEC with one loss after finishing its friendly league slate with a home win over Kentucky.
Just like that, the Bulldogs found themselves in this feast-or-famine situation.
If Georgia wins the SEC Championship Game over the winner of next Saturday’s game between the Longhorns and the Aggies — regardless of what happens against Georgia Tech — the Bulldogs will receive the glorious first-round bye and the trip to the Sugar Bowl.
If Georgia beats the Yellow Jackets and loses the SEC Championship Game, it will enter into a cluster of three-loss SEC teams that includes the Rebels and the Crimson Tide — two teams that beat the Bulldogs head-to-head — presenting a very iffy scenario.
Ironically enough, an impressive win over Georgia Tech could hold enough value to overcome those head-to-head losses after the Yellow Jackets upset Miami two weeks ago.
The CFP Committee is also likely to take into account that UGA’s losses to Alabama and Ole Miss were both on the road, which has proven to be more of a factor than ever in the SEC with the league’s increased level of parity this season.
The CFP committee has also said it will consider how teams play in their respective championship games before tallying its final rankings on Dec. 8, which will set the field for the 12-team playoff.
That means a close loss in the SEC Championship Game might not be quite as damaging -- after all, the other three-loss teams didn’t have the burden of an extra conference game.
There would be a quick turnaround for the SEC Championship Game loser should it make the 12-team CFP field -- the first-round games take place on teams’ campuses on Dec. 20-21.
Here’s how ESPN projects the next set of CFP rankings — which provides some insight, but is quite moot, because the outcome of the SEC Championship Game will ultimately throw a wrench into how things will actually finish:
1. Oregon (11-0)
2. Ohio State (10-1)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Penn State (10-1)
5. Notre Dame (10-1)
6. Miami (10-1)
7. Georgia (9-2)
8. Tennessee (9-2)
9. SMU (10-1)
10. Boise State (10-1)
11. Indiana (10-1)
12. Alabama (8-3)
13. Ole Miss (8-3)
14. South Carolina (8-3)
15. Texas A&M (8-3)
16. Clemson (9-2)
17. Arizona State (9-2)
18. BYU (9-2)
19. Tulane ((9-2)
20. Colorado (8-3)
21. Iowa State (9-2)
22. UNLV (9-2)
23. Missouri (8-3)
24. Illinois (8-3)
25. Army (10-1)
Other conference races
Big Ten
Oregon has clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game (and likely the CFP field), and will play Ohio State if the Buckeyes beat Michigan. Penn State would play Oregon if Ohio State loses to Michigan and it wins at home against Maryland next Saturday.
ACC
SMU has clinched a spot in the ACC title game -- but likely not a spot in the CFP field -- and will play Miami if the Hurricanes win at Syracuse. If Miami loses, Clemson will play in the ACC title game.
BIG 12
The Big 12 has the messiest situation with Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State in a four-way tie.
Arizona State and Iowa State will play in the Big 12 Championship Game if all four teams win next week: Iowa State plays Kansas State, BYU plays Houston, Arizona State plays Arizona and Colorado plays Oklahoma State.
GROUP OF FIVE
Boise State will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game after playing host to Pac-12 member Oregon State next Friday. The Broncos will play either Colorado State or UNLV -- whichever is ranked higher in the CFP rankings -- Colorado State hosts Utah State on Friday and UNLV welcomes Nevada on Saturday.
Army will play Tulane in the AAC Championship Game on Dec. 6, and then in a bizarre twist will face Navy on Dec. 14 -- after the final CFP Rankings are released. If Boise State wins, its very unlikely the AAC title game winner would jump it. But if Boise State loses, and Tulane beats Army impressively, it has an outside chance of moving past the Broncos or UNLV (provided UNLV is the team to play and beat Boise State) for the Group of Five spot.
CFP PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
FIRST ROUND
Dec. 20
Teams to be determined, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
Dec. 21
Teams to be determined, 12 p.m. (TNT Sports)
Teams to be determined, 4 p.m. (TNT Sports
Teams to be determined, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
CFP QUARTERFINALS
Dec. 31
Fiesta Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Glendale, Ariz.
Jan. 1
Peach Bowl, 1 p.m. (ESPN) in Atlanta
Rose Bowl, 5 p.m. (ESPN) in Pasadena, Calif.
Sugar Bowl, 8:45 p.m. (ESPN) in New Orleans
CFP SEMIFINALS
Jan. 9
Orange Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Miami Gardens
Jan. 10
Cotton Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Arlington, Texas
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Jan. 20, Mercedes-Benz Stadium 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Atlanta
