ATHENS — Gary Stokan sees the season coming down to “the play-ins to the playoffs,” a sequence of games filled with unintended and sometimes curious consequences.
“We have five games that are play-in gams left to play,” said Stokan the Peach Bowl CEO and president. “You’ve got Indiana at Ohio State, you’ve got Texas against Texas A&M, you’ve got Notre Dame playing Army and Tennessee going to Georgia in a play-in game.”
The Bulldogs, Stokan noted, don’t have to “sweat” the current CFP rankings, which if the season ended today would have them out of the 12-team field.
“If you’re Georgia, you win at home against Tennessee, and it will elevate you into the field,” Stokan said. “Georgia has wins against Tennessee and Clemson, and losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.
“Those are great losses, when you get into the nomenclature of wins and losses, from where the CFP committee sits.”
Stokan’s CFP Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Semifinal would currently feature projected ACC champ Miami playing the winner of No. 5-seed Ohio State playing host to No. 12-seed Boise State.
But from behind his desk in Atlanta, Stokan knows much of the water cooler talk around him at the moment is about Coach Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs — who might ultimately find their way to the Chick-fil-A Beach Bowl Semifinal.
Right now, however, it’s about Georgia controlling its own college football playoff destiny by beating Tennessee and winning out over UMass and Georgia Tech.
“From there, you become the biggest cheerleader from the team you beat to win out,” Stokan said, “because then your wins look even better.”
Georgia’s losses to fellow two-loss SEC members Alabama and Ole Miss make it very unlikely the Bulldogs can reach the SEC Championship Game.
But as Stokan points out, that might not be the worst-case scenario for Georgia — or any other team — that plays in the SEC title game and loses.
“You start to look at the unintended consequence of a conference playoff game,” Stokan said. “Georgia may be better off not getting to it, because if they went there and lost, they’d have three losses.”
Indeed, and that might be enough to keep the Bulldogs out of the 12-team CFP field.
“Whereas, if Georgia wins out, they finish 10-2,” Stokan said. “If they are outside the conference championship game, they’re in the playoff.”
Stokan has talked to plenty of coaches and administrators about the role league title games play in this new format.
“Some people would tell you they’d rather play in one to keep the momentum going than to have a big layoff,” Stokan said. “But some people would want the time off.”
In Georgia’s case, not playing the extra game on the front end could work better because of the number of injuries and amount of attrition the Bulldogs have suffered playing the No. 1-ranked schedule in the nation.
“At the end of the day, Georgia controls its own destiny,” Stokan said. “If they beat Tennessee and win out … they probably host a first-round game.
“They’d sign up to play a Penn State, Indiana or Notre Dame at home.”
It’s possibly Georgia might even work its way up to the No. 5 or No. 6 seeding, which could lead to a trip to Atlanta to play in the CFP Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl semifinal, depending on how the respective conference championship game winners end up ranked.
“A lot of people are saying they’d rather have a first-round home game and be seeded fifth than play in a conference title game,” Stokan said. “Because now they play at home against the 12th seed (currently Boise State), then with a win play the fourth-highest seeded conference champ.”
Stokan pointed out how the current rankings would have the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl play out.
“You’ve got Ohio State, ranked No. 2 (and seeded fifth) playing Boise State, and if they win they come to our game,” Stokan said. “They’d play Miami which is ranked ninth (but seeded fourth).
“So it’s a matter of the play-ins to the playoffs, and from there, a lot of unintended consequences that can work out for teams.”
Current CFP seedings, matchups
The top 4-seeded teams in the first CFP rankings -- seedings and rankings are not necessarily the same (rankings below story) -- which would receive byes if the season ended today, are:
1. Oregon (Big Ten)
2. Texas (SEC)
3. BYU (Big 12)
4. Miami (ACC)
Teams seeded No. 5 through No. 12, if the season ended today, which would play on-campus games in the first round of the CFP are:
5. Ohio State (would host No. 12 seed Boise State)
6. Penn State (would host No. 11 seed Ole Miss)
7. Indiana (would host No. 10 seed Alabama )
8. Tennessee (would host No. 9 seed Notre Dame)
9. Notre Dame
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12 Boise State
CFP Schedule
CFP FIRST ROUND
Dec. 20
Teams to be determined, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
Dec. 21
Teams to be determined, 12 p.m. (TNT Sports)
Teams to be determined, 4 p.m. (TNT Sports
Teams to be determined, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
CFP QUARTERFINALS
Dec. 31
Fiesta Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Glendale, Ariz.
Jan. 1
Peach Bowl, 1 p.m. (ESPN) in Atlanta
Rose Bowl, 5 p.m. (ESPN) in Pasadena, Calif.
Sugar Bowl, 8:45 p.m. (ESPN) in New Orleans
CFP SEMIFINALS
Jan. 9
Orange Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Miami Gardens
Jan. 10
Cotton Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Arlington, Texas
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Jan. 20, Mercedes-Benz Stadium 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Atlanta
