It’s time to climb out gingerly on that limb again with a Dawgs season prediction.
In 2021, many Georgia fans (including me) had a feeling that the coming season might be something special, but past disappointments had conditioned us to hedge our bets in predicting how Georgia would do.
This time last year, I said that, if the key players all got and stayed healthy, I thought the Dawgs would win the SEC East with a regular-season record of at least 11-1. So, technically, I was right, since that translated to “11-1 or better,” and 12-0 was, indeed, better.
I was a little gun-shy (and maybe superstitious) about predicting an undefeated regular season outright. Let’s not lose sight, after all, of what a tremendous accomplishment that is in the SEC, even before you consider the postseason.
Injuries can be a season-changer, and already the Dawgs have had a few key offensive players sidelined. Freshman tailback Andrew Paul is out for the season with an ACL tear, Kendall Milton was slowed in the preseason by a hamstring strain, and speedy-but-injury-plagued wide receiver Arian Smith is likely to miss a number of games, if not the entire season, after injuring an ankle and having surgery. “Poor kid can’t catch a break, man,” head coach Kirby Smart said of Smith, who played only four games each in his first two seasons at UGA because of injuries.
Georgia will be a youngish team this year, with Smart having estimated that, at times, 45 percent to 55 percent of those actually playing will be freshmen or sophomores. “Any time you have that,” he said, “you’re susceptible to lack of experience mistakes, anxiety mistakes, composure mistakes, so we try to create situations in practice to make them … feel like they’re in a game, so that when they’re in a game, they can just relax and go play.”
Even so, as was the case last year, the Dawgs will be favored in every game on their regular-season schedule.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t challenges ahead for the 2022 team, starting with the first game of the season, against Oregon at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Too much has been made of the fact that Oregon’s new head coach, Dan Lanning, was defensive coordinator at Georgia last year. That likely won’t be the source of any more meaningful “inside” information than will Georgia’s receivers coach, Bryan McClendon, having been on Oregon’s staff last year.
It is true, however, that Georgia’s rebuilt defensive front will be going up against an experienced Ducks offensive line, and Oregon, a 17-point underdog, might well be the more motivated of the two teams coming into the game, which will be played before a partisan crowd favoring UGA.
However, the 11th-ranked Ducks’ overall talent isn’t on the same level as No. 3 Georgia’s.
While Lanning has refused to announce his starting quarterback publicly, the odds are pretty good it will be Auburn transfer Bo Nix, who can be pretty elusive, but whose record against the Dawgs, to date, is 0-3. (The other QB contenders for Oregon are a pair of redshirt freshmen who have zero starts between them.)
Like I said in my early season preview back in June, I can see the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game being competitive in the first half, but I don’t think the Ducks have the talent to hang with Georgia for four quarters.
Looking at the rest of the regular-season schedule, those in Bulldog Nation prone to fretting are concerned about the Sept. 17 meeting with South Carolina in Columbia, thinking it could be an early “trap” game, what with the Gamecocks now having former Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler to throw to tight end Austin Stogner and receiver Josh Vann. But, while coach Shane Beamer certainly has his program on the road back to respectability, I don’t think it’s ready to threaten the Dawgs’ dominance in the East.
Speaking of which, the SEC East title usually has been decided in Jacksonville, but many observers think that this year it’ll come down to the week after that, when Tennessee visits Athens.
It’s true that the Vols’ no-huddle, three-plays-a-minute offense, led by QB Hendon Hooker and wide receiver Cedric Tillman, could prove more problematic for Georgia’s defense this year than it was last season. However, even if it turns into a shootout, I like the Dawgs’ odds. Tennessee’s defense isn’t likely to be that much improved over last year, when it was not very good.
Yes, there’s always the chance that the Dawgs might slip up and lose to a lesser team sometime during the season, but I’d say it’s less likely this year, because Georgia has a veteran offense, and the question marks on defense mostly are related to experience, not talent.
While there has been a lot of discussion about the defensive makeover necessitated by UGA supplying a host of new defensive talent for the NFL — you don’t lose the likes of Jordan Davis, Travon Walker and Devonte Wyatt without it impacting your team — it’s not like Smart and his defensive co-coordinators, Glenn Schumann and Will Muschamp, are starting from nothing.
The Dawgs may return only three defensive starters — junior outside linebacker Nolan Smith, sophomore defensive back Kelee Ringo and senior defensive back Christopher Smith — but Georgia played a lot of folks last year, so the replacements are not without game experience. In fact, some of them played in all 15 games last year.
And, thanks to Smart’s continued elite recruiting, the talent level remains high, with NFL prospects Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith leading the pack.
Also, as sophomore cornerback Kamari Lassiter said of the players on this year’s Georgia defense, “We have the recipe. We know what it takes; we sat back and watched those guys [last year] day in and day out put in the work, how they carried themselves on and off the field.”
Another sophomore, linebacker Smael (pronounced “Smile”) Mondon, said something along the same lines: “They showed us what it takes, the hard work you have to put in every day, the toughness, composure, resiliency, connection. They showed us what it takes to go all the way.”
Still, it’s expected that the offense will have to carry a bigger load than last year, at least during the first half of the season. Fortunately, Georgia returns most of its offensive talent, and looks to be, if anything, more explosive than last year’s squad, which averaged 38.6 points a game. That ranked ninth nationally, but keep in mind that the Dawgs coasted through quite a few second halves thanks to big leads.
With all its weapons, and the mobile Stetson Bennett back at QB (and having had all season to work with Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken as the established starter), the offense looks more than ready to top last season’s performance.
As my old buddy CP noted this week, you easily could see the team averaging closer to 42 points this season.
The thing about Georgia’s offense these days is that it’s adaptable. If the Dawgs have a comfortable lead, they can spend the rest of the game running it down your throat, but, they’re not really a “run-first” offense any longer. The elusive “balance” that they spent years seeking quietly has been achieved. In the competitive portion of games last season (generally the first three quarters), the Dawgs passed more than 50 percent of the time.
It’s true that, with the departure of George Pickens, the Dawgs don’t have what most college football observers would consider an “elite” wide receiver. But, defenses better not sleep on AD Mitchell, Kearis Jackson, Ladd McConkey, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and a once again healthy Dominick Blaylock. And, younger names, like Jackson Meeks and Dillon Bell, might wind up in contention for this year’s surprise “breakout” star.
More importantly, Georgia has the best group of tight ends in the country, and perhaps in college football history. That adds all kinds of options for Monken, since big, fast tight ends are a mismatch for most defenders.
Also, Georgia frequently lined up with tight end Brock Bowers split out last year, and is likely to do so again this year with both him and LSU transfer Arik Gilbert, who’s considered a hybrid tight end/receiver. Then there’s towering Darnell Washington, as well as early enrollee Oscar Delp, who also shows a lot of promise.
In addition, whenever any combination of those tight ends is in the game, they must be covered, which means wide receivers will be getting open or having single coverage (as happened with Mitchell’s touchdown catch in the natty back in January).
Honestly, this year’s offense has me excited. Last year, we saw Georgia occasionally lining up with three tight ends to one side in the red zone (which was particularly successful in the game against Tennessee, as I was reminded watching a recent SEC Network replay). Just imagine what it’s going to be like the first time the Dawgs line up inside the 20 with a four-tight-end formation!
(Of course, Monken will be judicious in his use of this nuclear option, because, as he explained with a laugh in a preseason press conference, “if you run it too often, you get every wideout in the portal.”
But he conceded, “we do have great players at that position. … We do have to find a good way to get them on the field.”
The running game still should be formidable, too, with Kenny McIntosh likely to be the starting tailback, sharing carries with Milton, Daijun Edwards and freshman Branson Robinson. That’s not as much depth at the running back position as Monken would like to see, but it’s a quality group. And, Monken has indicated that McIntosh, who was used as a receiver some of the time last year, might be a bigger part of the passing game this season.
On defense, I’m also looking forward to seeing what sixth-year senior and 2021 sack leader Robert Beal can do now that he’s finally a full-time starter.
Beal had 6.5 sacks last year, including one in the national title game, along with 23 tackles and seven tackles for loss, while playing in all 15 games, but only starting two of them. Perhaps he can get double-digit sacks this year.
I especially hope we see Beal getting reacquainted with Nix in the opener, as we did in last year’s Auburn game.
Overall, Georgia’s defensive talent remains at a high enough level that, as the team progresses through the season and gains experience, the drop-off from last year shouldn’t be as noticeable.
Still, intangibles figure into any season. As Smart noted recently, “You can have the talent, but you have to have some things go your way. You have to play well in big moments. We’ve had really successful seasons before, but we didn’t win it all because we had a letdown somewhere.”
Hopefully, the 2022 Dawgs can avoid those letdowns.
Anyway, as I begin my 18th year writing the Junkyard Blawg, I’m feeling much the same about the coming season as I did a year ago. I fully expect the Dawgs to win the SEC East, and, assuming key players get and remain healthy, I don’t see any reason why Georgia shouldn’t go at least 11-1 (read that as “12-0, barring an unforeseen disaster”).
And, I’ll take a step farther out on the limb this year and say that, whether they win the SEC Championship or not, I’ll be shocked if the Bulldogs don’t make it to the College Football Playoff.
Beyond that, there are too many uncertainties to predict another national title. The odds are long, as back-to-back national championships have been rare in recent decades.
However, even confirmed pessimists will have to grant that the schedule, talent and past experience have the 2022 Dawgs squarely in the College Football Playoff (and national title) conversation.
Despite all that talent lost from last season’s generational defense, I won’t be at all surprised if this year proves to be a case of rinse and repeat.
‘A CHANCE TO PLAY’
Opening Sept. 9 in the Hargrett Library’s Rotunda Gallery at UGA (the day before the Dawgs’ football home opener) is “‘A Chance to Play: Title IX and Women’s Athletics at UGA,” an exhibition marking the 50th anniversary of Title IX, the mandate that gave female athletes the right to equal opportunity in sports at educational institutions that receive federal funds.
Put together by Hargrett’s UGA sports historian, Jason Hasty, the exhibition explores the origins of women’s athletics at the university.
“The exhibit will be in two parts,” Hasty told me. The first part will look at how women were allowed to participate in athletics on campus before 1972, and the second will look at some of our greatest female athletes since.”
There’ve been so many great athletes, teams and coaches in women’s sports at Georgia, Hasty said, that the problem is “it’s hard to include everyone,” so he’s not trying to present a comprehensive history.
But, he said, “I’m especially excited to be bringing out some materials about pre-Title IX women’s sports, which were done through Women’s PE and what is now Rec Sports. So much of this history has been lost or just never brought out, so I think it’s important to acknowledge those women who were making a space for themselves in athletics, even if it wasn’t varsity competition or through the Athletic Department.”
In addition to his efforts, Hasty said that UGA Athletics staff writer John Frierson “will be adding some stories that he’s written about our great female athletes.”
Also, Jane Russell, who was head of Rec Sports from 1995 through 2007 (and who was coordinator of campus recreation for Student Affairs from 1979 through 1995), will be adding her reminiscence of working with former assistant athletic director for women’s sports Liz Murphey and athletics board member Clifford Lewis as the Title IX era dawned.
This fall, Hasty noted, “I’ll offer free tours of the exhibit at 3 p.m. on Fridays before home football games.”
Hasty’s exhibitions always are worth the time of anyone interested in UGA athletics history, so check this latest one out when you’re in Athens this fall.
