What sort of year should Kirby Smart’s Dawgs have in 2022?
That’s what a friend from my high school days asked me when we were having lunch this past week.
Here’s what I said: I think we’ve reached the point where a 10-2 record might be considered a disappointing year by many, if not most, in Bulldog Nation.
The Dawgs are at that level now, with Smart recruiting strongly year after year. He was hired to win national championships, which Mark Richt never could do. He’s now done that, but that doesn’t mean the UGA fan base will go back to being satisfied with just being in a New Year’s Six bowl.
Really, though, I don’t see the Dawgs sinking that “low.” I won’t predict whether Georgia can repeat as national champions — there are too many unknowns that factor into that at this point — but I’m cautiously optimistic that the 2022 Bulldogs will be a playoff contender.
That means, of course, that I see them winning the SEC East and playing in the conference championship game in Atlanta, probably against Alabama.
And, barring a bunch of undefeated teams at the top of the College Football Playoff standings, that ought to mean that the Dawgs would make the playoff, win or lose against Bama — just like last year.
It’s true that UGA lost a lot of talent from last year’s generational defense. The Dawgs will be in rebuilding mode on that side of the ball this season, but the offense looks primed to outdo last year’s unit (which wasn’t too shabby), and seems capable of carrying the team until the young D gets fully in gear, thanks to stellar talents such as Brock Bowers and AD Mitchell.
Looking at the schedule, I know some folks are worried about the Chick-fil-A opener in Atlanta against Oregon, since most teams still have a few kinks to work out in their first game, and the Ducks’ new head coach, former UGA defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, knows the Dawgs inside-out.
I could see that game being challenging in the first half, but I don’t think the Ducks have the talent to hang with Georgia for four quarters, and the fact that their likely starting quarterback is Bo Nix doesn’t impress me. He didn’t have much success against Georgia while he was at Auburn.
Also, the Vols are likely to push the Georgia defense with their up-tempo offense, but, unlike some national college football observers, I’m not convinced Tennessee is back yet — and, yes, I’ve said that several times before, when preseason prognosticators have zeroed in on UT as a rising power. So far, through several Vols head coaches, I’ve been right.
As for Florida, I just don’t think the Gators are there yet, either.
Of course, there always is the chance that the Dawgs will slip up somewhere during the season — remember the double-overtime loss to the Gamecocks in 2019?
But, barring that, I expect great things for UGA in 2022.
To see how my view compares with what others are thinking, I did a totally unscientific quickie survey this week of some lifelong Dawgs fans I know, ranging from retirees in their mid-70s to a recent high school graduate.
“You know,” said veteran Athens columnist Darrell Huckaby, “I told myself after we won [the national championship] that I looked forward to just enjoying each game as it came, without the pressure of feeling like we had to win each game, or else. But, having said that, it’s hard to see a loss before the SEC Championship game; 10-2 would feel like a disaster. I think it is us and Bama again.”
At the other end of the age spectrum, my great-nephew Gabe Rudd, who already lives and breathes Georgia football, thinks that, “realistically, we have two tough games this year, but I think we go undefeated. Oregon will be our first major test, and everything after that until Tennessee is a cake walk. Tennessee might be tough, too, but, with it being at home, the Dawgs will come out with a W.”
Beyond that, Gabe believes “we’ll play A&M or Bama in the SEC championship game. We’ll go to the playoffs and have a hard-fought battle that will lead us to the natty. I won’t predict us being natty champs, but I think we’ll get there, for sure.”
Other predictions from Gabe: “Kendall Milton will be a 1,000-yard rusher and Kearis Jackson will be our leading receiver. Kelee Ringo will obviously be our leading corner, and Nolan Smith will have the most tackles. Jalen Carter will lead the team in sacks.”
Helen Castronis, who grew up in the Georgia football family (her dad was the beloved “Coach Mike”), agrees that many fans would be disappointed “if we ‘only’ won 10 this year (isn’t that why Coach Richt had to go?).”
Helen, who admitted that her confidence doesn’t always match up with her superstitious nature, thinks the Dawgs are at the “reloading” level, although she noted that the transfer portal and injuries could play havoc with depth.
“If we were in a different region of the country or conference, we should always be in the playoff picture,” she said. “But, we will get scrutinized and compared to Bama and the doubters or the ones who run ESPN will use that to try and exclude us from the North, South, East, West matchup scenario they crave. Bama will be a favorite, because they have Bryce Young, and we won’t be a favorite, because we have Stetson Bennett. Go figure.”
A few of the folks I checked with used to cover the Dawgs for TV or newspapers, but that didn’t make them any less optimistic.
Retired Atlanta sportscaster Bill Hartman sees results for the Dawgs much like last year: “Unbeaten 12-0 regular season. Probably get beat in SEC Championship by Alabama but still make playoffs.”
And Blake Giles, who used to edit the Athens Banner-Herald’s sports pages, observed that, “If we don’t go 12-0 leading up to the postseason, it will disappoint. We lost a lot, but we have a lot coming back, too. It could be a replay of last year, one-loss Alabama and unbeaten UGA for the SEC. Maybe this time, Georgia wins in Atlanta. We will not dominate as much this year, but Kirby has recruited well. I think we will be one of the last four playing.”
One of my UGA classmates, Steve Oney, said the game that worries him is Georgia vs. Tennessee. Steve’s reasoning: “Remember how fast the Vols started against the Dawgs in 2021? Georgia was ultimately too good, but Vol quarterback Hendon Hooker is the sort of go-for-broke downfield passer who gives the Dawgs fits. If he’s on his game, and the Vols are as improved overall as the press reports, this could be a difficult Saturday in Athens.”
Longtime Blawg reader Mark Symms is trying to be realistic: “How do you replace a once-in-a-lifetime defense? We can’t. We will have a better than good, perhaps even great, defense. But, we won’t have that defensive edge that allowed us to dominate.
“We have to have an offense that puts up big numbers against every SEC team we play that wants to knock off the current champs. I look at the schedule and we should win every game, with UT maybe giving us our biggest challenge. We will see on Sept. 24 which team in the East is the challenger when [the Vols] play Florida.”
Another reason Tennessee is a threat, Mark said, “is that we will play hard and maybe suffer a few injuries the week before in the Jacksonville bloodbath. We have our two biggest games on the schedule back-to-back.”
Still, Mark believes “we can go undefeated and face another undefeated Bama team that will be better than last year’s Bama team. That is where our problems begin. If the rest of the conferences cave in, the SEC gets two tickets to the dance. Making lightning in a bottle two years in a row by beating Bama in the final is more than I care to bet this house, your house or even the house salad on. I think we give a respectable showing that will keep the recruits coming, but to get another natty this year is more than I am willing to go all-in on.”
Owen Scott, with whom I grew up with in Athens, said that, “Me personally, 10-2 wouldn’t be the end of the world, but 11-1 would be great. … We continue to recruit at the highest level. My major thought is that Bennett should be very good at QB. He loves the game, loves being where he is, has maturity and experience running the offense well, and I’m confident he’s been working to improve. We’re world-class at tight end, and our receivers and running backs are talented. I doubt any fans expect the D to reach the generational heights of 2021, but we should be solid with the players moving up. We definitely are playoff contenders.”
He did add one note of caution: “You can always have a bad game. We were so consistent last year.”
Another native Athenian I’ve known since we were 4 years old, Carlton Powell, is tempering his prediction — somewhat. “With a little luck, I am thinking we can go 11-1 in the regular season this year,” he said when we chatted this week. “I think we’ll stub our toe somewhere along the line.”
However, he conceded, “I can also see us going 12-0.”
Carl agrees that Tennessee will be “a key game” and thinks South Carolina, with the addition of Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler at quarterback, also could be tricky for the Dawgs. On the other hand, he said, last season “Kirby did a great job of getting the team ready; they know they have to focus each week.”
Scott Peacocke, who’s one of the Bulldog buddies with whom I text back and forth during games, is another optimist this offseason (despite his natural pessimist tendencies). “I honestly don’t see how we don’t win the SEC East again,” he said, “and, thus, at worst, will be playing for a playoff spot come December in the SEC Championship Game.”
Another texting buddy, Joel Provano, agreed. “Tennessee might be the second-best team in the East, and they’re probably not even a Top 20 team,” he said. “Not winning the East would be a big disappointment. We have a lot of holes to fill on defense, but no lack of talent, and the offense could be scary good … if our receivers can just survive the practices.”
Jason Hasty, the UGA athletics history specialist at the Hargrett Library in Athens, is gun-shy about predicting another undefeated regular season, “just because of how hard it is to accomplish that in the SEC. I do think, though, just looking at the way our schedule lines up, that if we make it through the opener against Oregon, then we have a good chance to go into the post-Florida part of the season unblemished.”
Possible “landmine” games, he said, include South Carolina. “Shane Beamer is building something nice up in Columbia, but I don’t think they have the overall talent to beat us if we play the way we should. The heat will be a factor in Columbia, for sure.
“Auburn is in disarray, as they oftentimes are,” he said, “so who knows what they’ll be like in October (and yes, it galls me that the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry is no longer in its traditional spot on the schedule). I don’t think that Florida has the talent to compete with us, and we seem to have taken control of that series again.”
Jason added that Tennessee worries him, “because they think that they have momentum, and they run that ultra-fast offense that could test some of the younger starters on defense.”
Also, he said, “Mississippi State could be a tough game, because it’s always tough to play ‘Tween the Cowbells, and Mike Leach will throw all day and night on us.”
Jason rejects comparisons with other SEC teams not named Alabama who won a national title and then fell off. “Unlike Auburn in 2010, LSU in 2019, or a few other recent champions, we didn’t win because we caught lightning in a bottle with a transcendent player,” he said. “We won because Coach Smart and his staff have recruited and developed at the highest level, and have built a structure that should keep us in the national title hunt for years to come.”
Meanwhile, Alan Cason, who runs the Dawg Bites group on Facebook, calls himself “an extreme optimist,” adding that he thinks the schedule “certainly favors us. I say 12-0 headed to Atlanta, and this year we raise that trophy [for the SEC title]. And that gets us in as No. 1 seed in the CFP.”
Which brings us to my brothers, Tim King and Jonathan King.
Last summer, Tim predicted the 2021 Dawgs would go 15-0. They didn’t quite do that, but, with a national championship trophy in Athens, he wasn’t disappointed.
This season, Tim sees “an undefeated regular season; definitely a playoff team; most likely a natty championship.”
As for Jon, he has been predicting the Dawgs would go undefeated and win a national championship every year for as long as I can remember, so his response to me was: “Do you seriously need my prediction?”
Yes, I told him, for the record.
His familiar response: “15-0.”
Then, he added: “Undefeated, national champion. Saban retires.”
Well, a Dawg can dream, right?
