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Georgia vs. Tennessee is perhaps the most-exciting game on the SEC’s Week 12 schedule. To be fair, there’s not much competition, as it’s Cupcake Week for many teams in the conference.

Still, the SEC East showdown between the Bulldogs and Vols should be a good one, even if Georgia locked up the SEC East title last week when Tennessee lost to Mizzou. The Dawgs have a lot to play for ahead of the SEC Championship Game, as there’s plenty of competition for spots in the College Football Playoff this season.

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Georgia vs. Tennessee Best Bets

Georgia vs. Tennessee lines are already out on ESPN BET. Here’s a look at the odds as of Wednesday:

Georgia is riding a 6-game winning streak in this SEC East rivalry game, including beating Tennessee coach Josh Heupel the last 2 years. Here’s a look at the scores in this matchup the past 6 years:

Obviously, the pre-Heupel years for Tennessee were dark ones. But we can still glean something from that series history, notably last year. The No. 1-ranked Vols came to Sanford Stadium and left with a disappointing loss.

This year’s game is on Rocky Top, but this Tennessee team is ranked No. 21 to Georgia’s No. 1, so the Vols aren’t as good as they were in 2022. That being said, the Vols are still dangerous in Knoxville. They’re 5-0 on Rocky Top, but only 2-0 against SEC competition.

Beating Texas A&M by 7 at home is arguably the Vols’ best win, which isn’t on the same level as Georgia.

Our best bet? Take Georgia to cover the 10-point spread. The Dawgs are rolling lately, having just taken down a tough Mizzou squad and smoked a strong Ole Miss team. The defense has it together and the offense is hitting its stride.

Check back later in the week when ESPN BET will likely have plenty of player props and other exciting markets to bet on for this big-time rivalry game.

Best Bet: Georgia -10.0

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Georgia vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

Georgia hasn’t been great against the spread this year, mostly because the Bulldogs have faced such high spreads as 2-time reigning national champions. Here’s a look at Georgia vs. the number this season:

While those numbers don’t look great for the Dawgs, you can see that they dominated the number last week, blowing out Ole Miss in the lowest spread they’ve faced this year. Georgia also brings its best to big games, going 3-2 against the spread in the 5 lowest spreads its faced. The 2 losses ATS were at Auburn (-14.5 favorites) and vs. Mizzou (-14.5 favorites). Last week’s big win over Ole Miss bodes well for Georgia this coming weekend.

Here’s a look at Tennessee’s betting trends:

Yes, Tennessee is 5-1 against the spread at home this year, but as mentioned earlier, a team like Georgia has yet to visit Neyland Stadium thus far. The more interesting bullet point above is the final one. Tennessee caught Alabama in Tuscaloosa right as the Tide were turning things around. The Vols took a big lead into halftime, but Alabama dominated the second half and hasn’t looked back since.

With the Vols coming off an ugly 36-7 loss at Mizzou last week, don’t look for them to have much more success against Georgia’s defense.

Georgia vs. Tennessee Havoc Rate

A “havoc” play is defined as a play in which the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is a good thing. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what sort of “havoc” the offense allowed the defense to create. Therefore, on that side, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for the offense.

Georgia offense havoc rate: 12% (92nd percentile)

Tennessee defense havoc rate: 19% (78th percentile)

Tennessee offense havoc rate: 13% (84th percentile)

Georgia defense havoc rate: 17% (59th percentile)

Both offenses do a solid job of taking care of the ball, preventing defenses from making too many big plays. Tennessee’s defense creates more havoc than Georgia’s, but there’s one telling stat that explains why. While Georgia ranks 11th in the SEC with 53 TFLs, Tennessee is 2nd with 82.

Based on Georgia’s offense taking care of the ball, though, expect that advantage for the Vols to be mostly neutralized on Saturday afternoon.

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